‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's homes.
As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.
"Conditions are critical. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."
City-Specific Fallout
In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.
India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.
Growing Panic
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.
According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.
Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
