Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".
Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working
Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Options outlined in the files were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers
It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."
The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.
