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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.