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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves cautioning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”